Dsalita It would be rude not to start in Perth as Vasiliy Lomachenko looks to get back on the winning horse against the game home-favourite George Kambosos Jr.
Both guys are licking their Devin Haney inflicted wounds having gone a combined 0-3 against the “Dream” between 2022-23, but despite being six years his senior, Lomachenko comes into this contest as the perceived fresher man and a 1/6 (-600) FAV to edge out the Sydney-born “Ferocious”.
Lomachenko is an ATG fighter and Kambosos is, well, we don’t truly know. The 30-year-old’s career has been able to springboard following a shock win over an underprepared Teofimo Lopez in 2021, but on the eye-test he is pretty one-dimensional if not solid with a huge beating heart.
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Tailor-made is too strong of an analysis of Kambosos’ style against Lomachenko, but it’s impossible not to be drawn to pick Lomachenko on the cards at 8/13 (-163) in this one, as “Hi-Tech” does what he does best in nullifying aggressive attacks through fluid footwork over the championship distance.
Kambosos’ counter-punching will probably offer him glimpses in the fight, and Loma’s infamous slow starts open up the betting for a real flurry of output from the home fighter. For Kambosos to throw 450+ punches in the contest lands at Evens (+100) and you can imagine him throwing the kitchen sink at the Ukrainian if he is down badly on the cards going into the last three or four.
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PREDICTIONS: Lomachenko vs Kambosos
The upset sits at around 11/2 (+550) and, unless you’re John Hansen, it’s hard to find a pathway for this to represent true value. Lomachenko hasn’t shown enough decline in recent years for us to be picking against him as a faded force.
The co-main event sees Andrew look to right the wrongs of his brother Jason Moloney after the latter dropped his world title in Tokyo on Monday. Andrew Moloney is a 4/9 (-225) favourite to grab the WBC’s interim super-flyweight title from the experienced and teak-tough Pedro Guevara.
As a 9/5 (+180) underdog, Guevara has to be the pick here in a fight that will no doubt catch fire with two guys swinging in the middle of the ring. When this happens, form goes out of the window and margins of victory really narrow.
Andrew hasn’t quite taken that step up to the top tier like his brother has, and being paired with an active Mexican who hasn’t ever been stopped or really hurt is screaming red flags. 11/4 (+275) for Guevara to win via decision isn’t that much of a bonus on the outright win, but the option is there if you don’t fancy his power considering 22 career KOs at 54%.
The UK offerings come from the sweaty York Hall and Cardiff and Denzel Bentley’s return after losing the British middleweight title to Nathan Heaney in a cracker last November.
Bentley’s outright price to beat Danny Dignum isn’t worth looking at at 1/7 (-700) FAV, and even his 1/3 (-300) price to win via stoppage isn’t that appealing. And with Lauren Price a 1/5 (-500) favourite to beat Jessica McCaskill also not dripping with value, a further look across the UK cards sees a nice toss-up fight between Rhys Edwards and Thomas Patrick Ward.
Edwards’s youth looks to hold up against Ward’s experience and this featherweight clash could well steal the show in Cardiff. This one looks set to go the distance at 2/11 (-550) but backing Rhys Edwards to get a tightly contested decision on the cards at 5/6 (-120) looks the best bet without any real conviction behind it.
